Systems, calculated & ruthless
Every position comes from a written rule based on a back-tested, fortified system. Leave your emotions at the door.
Miss the crash. Keep the compounding.
One rules-based system runs five positions: the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, Bitcoin, Ethereum and gold. Each morning before the bell I publish the day's targets in plain English. How much to hold. When to stand in cash. Over 23 years of backtests the engine was out of the market before every major crash.
The weekly letter is free. The live book and daily signals are $7 a month.
ExampleWhat a member sees every trading day. Sample data, shown in a risk-on week.
The daily read · members dashboardMacro Regime Engine
RISK-ON
Engine reads Goldilocks · equity sleeves sized at 100%
Risk-on votes28
Risk-off votes19
Growth OK8/10
Goldilocks16
Reflation12
Inflation11
Deflation8
Scale: 0–18 votes per regime
The book · today's targets
Members onlySPYS&P 500 · MRE
LONG · 36%
QQQNasdaq 100 · MRE
LONG · 32%
GLDGold · Trend
LONG · 14%
IBITBitcoin · Trend
LONG · 11%
ETHAEthereum · Trend
LONG · 7%
USFRCash & equivalents
CASH · 0%
Sample book, fully invested: five sleeves, no cash. Each target is the signal times an inverse-volatility weight. The bars share one scale sized to the largest sleeve. Full history, every chart and all 26 regime voters are inside the members area.
The whole book · backtest since 2018$100,000 became $513,000. The worst drawdown along the way was −10%.Numbers shown based on full portfolio backtest starting January 1st, 2018.
+21.5%yearly CAGR
−10%worst drawdown
2.04Sharpe
2.13Calmar
0.27beta to the S&P
The philosophy
Survival is alpha.
A −50% loss needs a +100% gain to get back to even. A −83% loss needs +488%. Most investors are ruined by a single hole they spend three years climbing out of. Skip the deepest holes and you compound from a higher base in every cycle that follows.
Read the full thesis: Survival Is Alpha →- 01
- 02
Cash is a position
The current regime decides if stocks get allocated at all. The Tailwind Trend Indicator decides Bitcoin, Ethereum and gold. When a sleeve goes flat it rolls to cash, and cash is where the next bull market's base is protected.
- 03
Low maintenance
Targets move only when a sleeve drifts more than 2%. Most days there is nothing to adjust and the dashboard says so.
The receipts
The Macro Regime Engine uses breadth to detect turbulence in the market to avoid crashes and protect capital.
Backtest of the Macro Regime Engine on the S&P 500, 2000–2023.
Sep 2000 · Dot-com−49%
To cash in September 2000. The S&P fell 49% over the next two years. Back in December 2002, near the bottom.
Dec 2007 · Financial crisis−56%
Out in December 2007. Flat through the entire waterfall. Back in April 2009.
Feb 20, 2020 · COVID−34%
Out on February 20. The S&P fell 34% in the next month. Back in May 2020, into the recovery.
Nov 2021 · The 2022 bear−25%
Out in November 2021, before the rate shock. Back in January 2023, early.
Inside the members area
Systems updated daily before market open. Be positioned correctly.
Have confidence in your portfolio. The dashboard answers the four questions that decide your week. It is refreshed every morning before the open and a Substack alert goes out the moment a signal changes.
Macro Regime Engine
Are we risk-on or risk-off?
Twenty-six market voters across growth, inflation and safety score the regime each day as Goldilocks, Reflation, Inflation or Deflation. One call sizes the S&P 500 and Nasdaq sleeves. 23 years tested, seven live forward tests.
Tailwind Trend Indicator
Is the trend bullish or bearish?
One frozen rulebook on Bitcoin, Ethereum and gold, with no per-asset tuning. Each sleeve is out, easing in at 25%, or all in. Ride the trend on the way up, step-aside on the way down.
The book
What are the allocations today?
A live model portfolio of five plain ETFs in one account. Each is sized to its own risk so Bitcoin and the S&P move the book by about the same amount. You see held against target for every sleeve and whether there is a trade to make.
Weekly research
Why is the system positioned this way?
Each week I walk the tape and the models together and show the macro weather, global liquidity and financial-stress gauges behind every call. Every chart runs the full history so you can check my work.
Skin in the game
I run my own money on these exact signals.
The signals you see are the signals I trade. Same rules, same sizing, same morning routine. When the system says hold cash I hold cash. I publish the weak months next to the good ones.
No margin. No sponsored coins. No forecast for next month. A process an investor can keep through bull and bear alike.
[FOUNDER NAME + ONE-LINE BIO — e.g. 20 years in software engineering, systems built and published since 2025]
The letter is free. The book is $7.
The weekly letter costs nothing and never will. $7 a month buys the live book, both engines and a wire the moment a signal changes. That is less than one round-trip commission at a discount broker in 1995.
Free
$0
- Weekly macro letter and strategy deep dives.
- Regime commentary.
- Free Bitcoin and macro charts, no login.
Members
$7 / month
- Everything in Free.
- Access to the private members dashboard.
- The daily read: live regime, 26-voter breakdown, today's allocations.
- The full book: SPY, QQQ, Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold.
- US sector heatmap, macro weather, liquidity and stress gauges.
- Immediate alert on every signal change.